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杜传忠:新常态关键应在经济结构的转型升级

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年07月22日 01:57:54
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(  各)(位)(专)(家)(,下)(午)(好)(!首)(先)(感)(谢)(中)(改)(院)(对)(我)(的)(邀)(请)(,以)(及)(给)(我)(的)(发)(言)(机)(会)(。今)(天)(我)(给)(大)(家)(汇)(报)(的)(题)(目)(是)(新)(常)(态)(下)(的)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(:产)(业)(转)(型)(与)(升)(级)(。我)(是)(研)(究)(产)(业)(经)(济)(学)(的)(,就)(从)(产)(业)(转)(型)(升)(级)(的)(角)(度)(对)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(新)(常)(态)(下)(的)(发)(展)(切)(入)(,跟)(大)(家)(谈)(一)(下)(我)(的)(体)(会)(。
  第)(一)(个)(问)(题)(,既)(然)(是)(新)(常)(态)(下)(的)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(,自)(然)(要)(涉)(及)(到)(认)(知)(问)(题)(,今)(天)(上)(午)(和)(下)(午)(有)(很)(多)(人)(提)(到)(这)(个)(问)(题)(,从)(表)(现)(形)(式)(上)(看)(,新)(常)(态)(的)(到)(来)(,就)(是)(从)(经)(济)(增)(长)(率)(的)(角)(度)(,从)(原)(来)(比)(较)(高)(的)(经)(济)(增)(长)(到)(现)(在)(的)(中)(高)(速)(或)(者)(是)(一)(些)(国)(家)(说)(的)(低)(速)(增)(长)(状)(态)(,但)(是)(我)(认)(为)(这)(是)(一)(个)(表)(象)(,是)(一)(种)(新)(常)(态)(到)(来)(的)(表)(现)(形)(式)(,更)(重)(要)(的)(是)(,对)(新)(常)(态)(本)(质)(的)(、实)(质)(性)(的)(认)(知)(,对)(我)(们)(进)(一)(步)(认)(识)(新)(常)(态)(的)(意)(义)(更)(大)(一)(些)(,我)(对)(这)(个)(问)(题)(的)(认)(识)(有)(几)(个)(方)(面)(,首)(先)(,经)(济)(发)(展)(在)(原)(来)(的)(经)(济)(发)(展)(状)(态)(下)(,新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(的)(经)(济)(发)(展)(长)(期)(以)(来)(处)(于)(出)(口)(驱)(动)(,内)(生)(发)(展)(的)(动)(力)(严)(重)(不)(足)(。第)(二)(,作)(为)(比)(较)(优)(势)(参)(与)(国)(际)(产)(业)(分)(工)(的)(要)(素)(主)(要)(是)(丰)(裕)(的)(资)(源)(和)(低)(成)(本)(的)(要)(素)(,而)(技)(术)(、品)(牌)(、营)(销)(等)(高)(端)(要)(素)(匮)(乏)(。第)(三)(,内)(部)(经)(济)(结)(构)(严)(重)(失)(衡)(,产)(业)(结)(构)(升)(级)(缓)(慢)(。第)(四)(,新)(常)(态)(是)(摆)(脱)(传)(统)(粗)(放)(型)(高)(速)(增)(长)(态)(势)(,进)(入)(高)(效)(率)(、低)(成)(本)(的)(集)(约)(型)(、可)(持)(续)(的)(稳)(态)(中)(高)(速)(增)(长)(阶)(段)(,新)(常)(态)(的)(新)(,关)(键)(应)(在)(于)(经)(济)(结)(构)(的)(转)(型)(升)(级)(。
  第)(二)(个)(问)(题)(,新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(产)(业)(转)(型)(升)(级)(应)(重)(视)(的)(两)(大)(外)(部)(环)(境)(条)(件)(。从)(我)(研)(究)(的)(角)(度)(看)(,需)(要)(重)(视)(两)(大)(外)(部)(条)(件)(,新)(常)(态)(涉)(及)(到)(中)(长)(期)(的)(问)(题)(,我)(们)(考)(察)(新)(常)(态)(,也)(不)(能)(单)(独)(从)(现)(期)(的)(问)(题)(考)(虑)(。相)(比)(之)(下)(,我)(关)(注)(的)(是)(中)(长)(期)(的)(问)(题)(。两)(大)(外)(部)(环)(境)(需)(要)(引)(起)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(的)(关)(注)(,一)(是)(美)(欧)(等)(发)(达)(国)(家)(对)(制)(造)(业)(在)(国)(民)(经)(济)(中)(的)(地)(位)(和)(价)(值)(重)(新)(审)(视)(和)(反)(思)(,纷)(纷)(提)(出)(了)("再)(工)(业)(化)("的)(战)(略)(。二)(是)(以)("互)(联)(网)(+新)(能)(源)("为)(聚)(合)(推)(动)(力)(,信)(息)(技)(术)(、数)(字)(技)(术)(、网)(络)(技)(术)(与)(可)(再)(生)(能)(源)(相)(结)(合)(为)(主)(要)(内)(容)(的)(新)(产)(业)(革)(命)(正)(在)(全)(球)(孕)(育)(发)(展)(,主)(要)(发)(达)(国)(家)(给)(予)(高)(度)(重)(视)(,并)(采)(取)(了)(十)(分)(积)(极)(的)(应)(对)(战)(略)(及)(举)(措)(。发)(达)(国)(家)("再)(工)(业)(化)("战)(略)(的)(实)(施)(以)(及)(正)(在)(发)(生)(的)(产)(业)(革)(命)(必)(将)(对)(包)(括)(中)(国)(在)(内)(的)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(未)(来)(长)(远)(发)(展)(产)(生)(重)(大)(而)(深)(远)(的)(影)(响)(。对)(我)(国)(来)(说)(,不)(但)(是)(2020年)(建)(成)(小)(康)(社)(会)(,还)(有)(本)(世)(纪)(中)(叶)(实)(现)(现)(代)(化)(的)(目)(标)(,对)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(来)(说)(是)(新)(常)(态)(的)(应)(对)(。
  发)(达)(国)(家)(再)(工)(业)(化)(与)(新)(产)(业)(革)(命)(可)(能)(产)(生)(的)(影)(响)(,有)(几)(个)(方)(面)(:从)(产)(业)(的)(角)(度)(来)(说)(,一)(是)(产)(业)(冲)(击)(,以)(实)(体)(经)(济)(为)(基)(础)(的)(国)(内)(产)(业)(体)(系)(,无)(论)(是)(发)(达)(国)(家)(,还)(是)(发)(展)(中)(国)(家)(都)(是)(这)(样)(。二)(是)(重)(组)(国)(际)(产)(业)(的)(价)(值)(链)(,形)(成)(制)(造)(与)(服)(务)(相)(融)(合)(,高)(中)(低)(端)(诸)(环)(节)(一)(体)(化)(协)(同)(发)(展)(的)(新)(型)(国)(际)(产)(业)(分)(工)(格)(局)(,有)(可)(能)(在)(未)(来)(实)(现)(,不)(像)(当)(今)(的)(中)(高)(低)(端)(的)(三)(个)(环)(节)(的)(分)(离)(格)(局)(,而)(且)(重)(新)(走)(向)(一)(体)(化)(的)(格)(局)(。新)(兴)(国)(家)(的)(传)(统)(比)(较)(优)(势)(将)(大)(大)(削)(弱)(,对)(新)(的)(国)(际)(产)(业)(分)(工)(有)(可)(能)(更)(为)(不)(利)(。新)(的)(产)(业)(革)(命)(必)(将)(带)(来)(生)(产)(方)(式)(、产)(业)(组)(织)(、商)(业)(模)(式)(等)(全)(方)(位)(的)(创)(新)(。面)(对)(新)(产)(业)(革)(命)(,新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(实)(现)(产)(业)(转)(型)(升)(级)(,挑)(战)(大)(于)(机)(遇)(。
  第)(三)(个)(问)(题)(是)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(产)(业)(转)(型)(升)(级)(的)(自)(身)(障)(碍)(。一)(是)(体)(制)(机)(制)(的)(障)(碍)(,除)(了)(传)(统)(体)(制)(的)(改)(革)(以)(外)(,还)(应)(该)(对)(新)(的)(体)(制)(机)(制)(加)(快)(建)(设)(;二)(是)(技)(术)(创)(新)(体)(系)(和)(创)(新)(能)(力)(不)(足)(的)(障)(碍)(;三)(是)(自)(上)(而)(下)(形)(成)(的)(陈)(旧)(、过)(时)(的)(观)(念)(、体)(制)(、模)(式)(、组)(织)(、行)(为)(等)(路)(径)(依)(赖)(障)(碍)(;四)(是)(保)(证)(硬)(件)(设)(施)(与)("软)(件)("公)(共)(服)(务)(方)(面)(在)(内)(的)(基)(础)(设)(施)(相)(对)(滞)(后)(的)(障)(碍)(;五)(是)(高)(端)(型)(、使)(用)(型)(人)(力)(资)(本)(储)(备)(相)(对)(不)(足)(的)(障)(碍)(。
  第)(四)(个)(问)(题)(是)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(产)(业)(转)(型)(升)(级)(的)(外)(部)(挑)(战)(。发)(达)(经)(济)(体)(经)(济)(不)(振)(,为)(了)(巩)(固)(和)(强)(化)(其)(在)(全)(球)(价)(值)(链)(中)(的)(绝)(对)(主)(导)(地)(位)(,将)(更)(加)(重)(视)(核)(心)(技)(术)(,尖)(端)(技)(术)(的)(创)(新)(能)(力)(提)(升)(,从)(而)(加)(大)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(产)(业)(转)(型)(升)(级)(面)(临)(的)(全)(球)(市)(场)(竞)(争)(压)(力)(。新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(之)(间)(缺)(乏)(有)(效)(的)(经)(贸)(合)(作)(的)(组)(织)(机)(制)(。
  第)(五)(个)(问)(题)(是)(新)(常)(态)(下)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(产)(业)(转)(型)(升)(级)(的)(路)(径)(及)(对)(策)(。一)(是)(着)(力)(克)(服)(体)(制)(机)(制)(的)(瓶)(颈)(,为)(产)(业)(转)(型)(升)(级)(提)(供)(强)(有)(力)(的)(制)(度)(保)(障)(;二)(是)(推)(进)(全)(方)(位)(创)(新)(,打)(造)(产)(业)(转)(型)(升)(级)(的)(强)(力)(引)(擎)(;三)(是)(强)(化)(新)(常)(态)(下)(经)(济)(发)(展)(的)(产)(业)(支)(撑)(,着)(力)(构)(建)(与)(新)(产)(业)(革)(命)(发)(展)(趋)(向)(相)(适)(应)(,具)(有)(较)(强)(国)(际)(竞)(争)(力)(的)(产)(业)(体)(系)(;四)(是)(着)(力)(扩)(大)(需)(求)(,增)(强)(产)(业)(转)(型)(升)(级)(的)(新)(动)(力)(。这)(个)(问)(题)(我)(简)(单)(的)(说)(两)(句)(,需)(求)(方)(面)(除)(了)(内)(需)(和)(外)(需)(以)(外)(,大)(家)(要)(加)(大)(投)(资)(消)(费)(,主)(要)(是)(投)(资)(,投)(资)(方)(面)(,我)(认)(为)(投)(资)(总)(量)(和)(投)(资)(结)(构)(、投)(资)(效)(率)(是)(最)(重)(要)(的)(,另)(外)(,消)(费)(总)(量)(、消)(费)(结)(构)(的)(关)(系)(方)(面)(,着)(重)(扩)(大)(信)(息)(消)(费)(、网)(络)(消)(费)(、文)(化)(消)(费)(等)(新)(兴)(的)(消)(费)(方)(式)(。
  第)(六)(个)(问)(题)(是)(加)(强)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(产)(业)(转)(型)(升)(级)(的)(合)(作)(。一)(是)(国)(内)(外)(市)(场)(的)(对)(接)(,扩)(大)(市)(场)(需)(求)(;二)(是)(发)(挥)(各)(自)(比)(较)(优)(势)(,形)(成)(更)(有)(效)(率)(、更)(高)(水)(平)(的)(经)(贸)(合)(作)(模)(式)(;三)(是)(利)(用)(垂)(直)(专)(业)(化)(分)(工)(协)(调)(机)(制)(和)(差)(异)(化)(竞)(争)(策)(略)(,在)(全)(球)(新)(兴)(产)(业)(价)(值)(链)(分)(工)(中)(强)(化)(协)(同)(与)(合)(作)(;四)(是)(中)(国)(凭)(借)(现)(有)(的)(市)(场)(规)(模)(、产)(业)(配)(套)(能)(力)(,技)(术)(创)(新)(水)(平)(,基)(础)(设)(施)(实)(力)(等)(优)(势)(,在)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(产)(业)(协)(同)(发)(展)(中)(应)(发)(挥)(举)(足)(轻)(重)(的)(作)(用)(。
  谢)(谢)(大)(家)(!
  (根)(据)(速)(记)(整)(理)(,未)(经)(演)(讲)(者)(审)(阅)()
)


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